Tag Archives: subscriptions

Poor Signals, Poor(er) Customers

General mobile topics are not usually items MMM steers towards, especially since there are always several folks reporting on these and we value a bit of something that’s not always as-heard. Still, you get those moments when there are stories compelling enough that it makes sense to bring it up, and hopefully incite some fruitful conversations.

For example, Helen Keegan (LinkedIn, Twitter) is a well-known name in mobile circles – one for all of the gems she finds in terms of news, but also because of how much value she’s added to companies who want to have some sense of direction towards mobile activities. Over at her blog, she posted about 9 reasons why you might have a poor signal on your mobile device, and none of these are the ones you find in advertisements:

I’ve often wondered myself why my phone varies in performance. I get that different networks will have an impact, but I hadn’t really thought what the other issues might be. John explains it in his recent newsletter which I’ve copied below for you (with permission). I’m interested to know what you think. How much do these factors affect performance and are there other things that can affect it? I welcome your thoughts and comments.

“Various reports from around the world over the last three years note that have consumers increasingly experience poor coverage with their smartphones. The challenge for mobile operators is that the perceived coverage rarely reflects the quality of the network that the operators build and run, but rather the quality of the smartphones that people use. As a new ground-breaking study shows, the quality of the smartphone combined with how it is used and configured is more to blame that the mobile network.

Of course, that tends to lead us down the path that much of the conversation in the USA has been taking when it comes to mobile. Frankly, people are cutting costs, and mobile contracts are catching part of that wave. Over at the NY Times, an Alina Tugend talks about some of the decisions that people have to make concerning going to mobiles w/o contracts, and some of the false perceptions that having such mobiles brings out:

No-contract phones — or prepaid, which is essentially the same thing — have been around for quite some time, but most consumers thought they were “for people who couldn’t afford a better phone or couldn’t pass a credit check,” said Jayne Wallace, a spokeswoman for the Sprint Prepaid Group, which was formed in 2010. Sprint owns Virgin Mobile and Boost Mobile, both of which offer no-contract phones.

The Great Recession shook things up, though, as people started looking at where they could cut back on monthly bills — and began to investigate new cellphone options. At the same time, good phones were getting cheaper.

Its not simply a matter of just having a mobile, but its about knowing the kind of environment that you have around that mobile, and then what’s conductive to keep or lose inside of that. Part of that indeed has to do with where you live, and the mobile device. Another part has to do with what’s in your wallet to keep things going. As stories go, mobiles continue to shape the ones we make. Stories like these two are part of the mosaic, even if they don’t expressly state an intersection of faith that we are used to looking for.

Unique Numbers, Unique Possibilities

Useful assessment (Source: gsma.com) - click for full image

The image on this post comes via Horace Dediu (‏@asymco) via Twitter/TwitPic. It speaks to both the unique numbers that have characterized mobile for sometime in terms of its relationship of subscribers to the global population and to what’s addressable within those constraints.

In a previous post, we threw some numbers against the wall to explain in a similar fashion that while mobile is indeed an opportunity, what it can address directly isn’t limitless. Look at that graphic – as of 2012, the GSMA is saying that of the 4.7 billion people who could be addressable with mobile, 1.5 million (a tick less than 33%) of them are not connected due to network coverage issues. That’s a pretty large pocket of folks that you can’t rely on to download your app, receive your SMS/MMS, or scan your QR code/AR dimensional plane. For mobile to have effectiveness there, you’ve got to think more off the grid, and more to the point if mobile is the most relevant delivery or translation mechanism (for example, what we saw with AirStash on an airplane).

When you do adjust for that, then the possibilities of using mobile become unique enough that it seems as if it truly will reach the ends of the earth.

2012 Mobile Global Market Update from Chetan Sharma Consulting

Chetan Sharma, a long-time and well respected voice in mobile, has recently published a report which paints a global picture of what’s happening in mobile not just in relation to itself, but also in relation to other large-scale trends and appliances which seem normal to many of us. The big picture summary of this report paints an interesting picture not just for mobile and connected spaces, but how economic factors will play a part in mobile as an avenue for ministry:

The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.5 Trillion in 2012 with mobile data representing 28% of the mix. Mobile data services revenue stood at 33%. Global Mobile Data revenues eclipsed $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%.
 
By the end of 2011, the global subscriptions exceeded 6 Billion. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one took only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. China became the first country to eclipse the 1 billion mark in March 2012. India is likely to arrive at the milestone by early 2013.
 
Smartphones are driving tremendous growth around the globe. Amongst the major markets, US leads with 69% sales. The global figure stands at approximately 32%. Some operators expect 90-95% of their device sales to be smartphones in 2012. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.
 
China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.

A few of the facts highlighted in this report include

Total Global Subscriptions to exceed 7 Billion in early 2013
– China exceeds 1 Billion, India 950 Million. Subscriber growth is in Asia, Revenue growth is in Asia+North America
China and India represent 27% of subscriptions but only 12% of the global service revenues
– US represents only 6% of the subscriptions but 21% of the global service revenues, 26% of the data revenues, and 27% of the global CAPEX
Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
– 70% of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement cycle is shrinking
Samsung and Apple now account for 50% of the smartphone unit share and 90% of the profit share
– Difficult environment for other OEMs esp. when ZTE and Huawei are coming strong from the bottom. It will be difficult for pure play device OEMs to survive long-term
Tablets (iPads) has created a new computing paradigm that is having a significant impact on commerce, content consumption, and developer investments
– Apple will continue to dominate the segment and iOS will be the leading OS for the segment. Amazon, ZTE, Huawei, to chip away at the sub-$200 tier.

To read this report in detail, visit Chetan Sharma Consulting’s website, where there is a PDF downloadable version of this report complete with graphics and other source data useful for analyzing this data.

Once you have gone through it, does anything stick out for you? Does any of the data presented alter your plans or current activities in mobile? 

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Preview of 2010 Mobile Stats from Tomi Ahonen

Always worth a read for his opinions and analyses of the mobile industry, Tomi Ahonen (Communities Dominate Brands, Mobile as 7th of the Mass Media, etc.) has given a preview of an upcoming publication of mobile statistics for 2010. Here’s a preview of some of the information contained in that post:

  • 5.2 Billion mobile phone subscriptions (across just under 7 billion of the total world population)
  • 3.75 unique mobile phone subscriptions
  • 1.3 Billion new phones sold
  • 12% of phones owned are second-hand; 17% of phones are smartphones
  • 4.1 Billion active users of SMS; 1.35 billion active users of MMS; 1.5 billion active users of the mobile internet

Tomi’s data is one of the few places one can get an entire picture of what’s happening globally and his next almanac will be chock full of these and other very notable stats about mobile, mobile use, and upcoming trends.

Take a gander at the noted stats in detail at his preview post. And contemplate just how much more attention to mobile you’ll need to pay in the year to come as mobile is more than even something global and personal at the same time.